De Gea or Henderson?-Manchester United’s new summer dilemma
There is always a story in the press about Manchester United’s highest earners. The media has been obsessed with Paul Pogba over lockdown and it is only fitting that after a strong performance by the Frenchman another United star has been cast as the villain.
David De Gea’s mistake against Spurs is not the first time he has cost his team points this season. United’s 2 most recent draws came from De Gea mistakes and the Spaniard has been thoroughly underwhelming this season.
United now sit 2 points off Chelsea and the mistake had a worrying similarity to a De Gea error made at Chelsea last season. That game ended 1–1 and took the fire out of United’s Top 4 bid, with them finishing a lack lustred 6th following some embarrassing defeats.
At the end of last season, no one was talking about replacing De Gea. Keepers make errors and replacing the Spaniard would have been extremely costly.
Manchester United historically have struggled to replace great keepers, which De Gea undoubtedly was, having periods with shaky keepers following Schmeichel's and Van Der Sar’s departure. My childhood nightmares were filled with memories of Fabian Barthez and Roy Carroll.
Kepa is a more recent example of a big-money keeper not living up to a past great.
However, United Academy graduate Dean Henderson has had a stellar year on loan at Sheffield United and the young English keeper could be set to take the no1 shirt off the ageing Spaniard.
His proponents would argue he offers a top-quality alternative for zero cost to United but is the young English keeper actually ready?
His performance against Newcastle on Sunday was hardly outstanding and De Gea is only 29.
Despite this, there is a solid statistical and analytical case for Manchester United trusting in the 23yr old next season.
Headline statistics can be misleading for goalkeepers and Henderson’s superior clean sheet record is best explained by Sheffield United’s more defensive setup rather than just his stellar goalkeeping.
However, you can see Henderson saves a higher percentage of shots than De Gea, as well as saving 1 penalty save. His saves on average come from closer in, Henderson has a higher percentage of saves from shots within the 6yd box, though both keepers have a broadly similar save distribution by distance.
Critically, Henderson has made fewer errors leading to goals than De Gea, who officially didn’t get one in Friday’s fixture vs Spurs which might display that stat remains generous to the Spaniard.
A more detailed measure of a goalkeeper through statistics can be attained by looking at Expected Goals against (xGa). This way we can compare how many goals they were expected to concede vs how many they have.
De Gea doesn’t look too bad by this measure. He has let in 31 goals with an xGa of 31.1, about Par.
This is where Henderson’s quality becomes apparent. The Blades keeper was expected to concede 38 goals, 14 more than have actually hit the back of his net, making him statically the best keeper in the league by this measure. This is comparable to David De Gea in the 2017/18 when Manchester United finished 2nd and De Gea was the standout performer.
De Gea has a dramatic drop off since then while Henderson continues to improve and these statistics would indicate Henderson is one of the best keepers in the league.
There is something else to consider as well, finances.
With the COVID pandemic putting major stress on the club’s finances and FFP meaning United can’t make larges losses this season a player's wages could become a factor in whether he gets shown the door.
De Gea is Manchester United’s 2nd highest earner, with an annual salary of nearly £20 million, with only Paul Pogba earning more. Shifting him of their books could massively reduce the amount of red ink required for Ed Woodward.
Dean Henderson currently earns £520,000 a year, though United are expected to offer him a new deal which would see him paid 10x that to keep rival clubs at bay.
Whichever way you spin in swapping Henderson for De Gea would, therefore, mean a 15 million-plus saving and, statically speaking, a goalkeeping upgrade.
No brainer right?
Don’t be so sure. Playing for Manchester United is very different, no offence to the blades, to playing for Sheffield United.
Ben Foster looked unbeatable whilst on loan at Watford but mentally never cut it even with some of the best defenders of their generation playing in front of him. Though this argument may wear thin considering De Gea’s recent errors.
However, there is a mental edge required to play for Manchester United that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will have to decide if Henderson has or not. Henderson may never make it as Manchester United’s no1 but statically he has outperformed De Gea this season and United could be wise to trade one for the other and reinvest the savings elsewhere.
