Relegated Clubs are Bargain Central- But who should the top clubs buy?
In an ever-inflating transfer market, a real bargain is a tricky thing to find. Average players now cost ridiculous prices and young, English talent has an added premium making it harder and harder to find value in the market.
With the COVID 19 Pandemic wreaking havoc to football clubs finances some teams may not have a war chest this summer to spend. The dominoes that are football transfer over the summer may not fall and clubs may need to work that little bit harder to improve their squads.
One tactic that has proven effective in previous years is buying from the Premier Leagues relegated clubs. Leicester’s purchase of Harry Maguire for £12 million, making a tidy 68 million profit 2 years later, and Liverpool poaching Andy Robertson are notable examples.
Liverpool have been excellent at exploiting this in recent years, purchasing Wijnaldum, Robertson and Shaqiri in the space of 4 years for a combined fee of £45 million, they are worth £135 million.
Relegated players offer the potential value increases of players from the European market but come with valuable Premier League experience. Buying from relegated clubs then provides value without the risk of players not adapting to the higher standards and faster pace of the Premier League, which has caught out the likes of Ndombele and Joelinton this season.
This season’s bottom clubs have an abundance of talent with teams at risk of going down statically possessing 2 out of the 3 most creative players in the league as well as having bright young English talents that have caught the eye of the league’s top 6. This is a selection of the foot of the table’s attacking midfielders, statically analysing why they could be effective purchases for top half Premier League sides.
Jack Grealish
Jack Grealish will most likely leave Aston Villa this summer regardless of what league they play in next season. The figure being talked about at present is around £80 million, though his problems with parking and Villa’s possible relegation could lower this significantly.
He is a clear talent and has the most goal involvements of any player being analysed here with 7 goals and 6 assists. If Villa are to stay up he will need to put his off-pitch issues aside and continue the run of form that has got him linked relentlessly with Manchester United.
Grealish’s standout quality is his dribbling, he’s the most fouled player in the premier league and makes 2.2 successful dribbles per game. The standout statistic is the chances he creates with his dribbles. Grealish tops the charts for carries ending in a chance created but his pure dribbling statistics are worse than similar cheaper players like Buendia or Felipe Anderson.
He is also very creative with the 8th highest key passes per 90 in the league and he retains the ball well with 84% success rate with his passes and only takes 2.1 unsuccessful touches per 90.
If clubs want a 10/LW who can change games with long, direct running Grealish is the answer.
Manchester United are heavily linked but Grealish would struggle to get into their starting lineup even if Paul Pogba were to leave. Grealish is probably the best player on this list but it’s hard to argue he represents unearthed value in the transfer market.
Todd Cantwell
The other England Starlet being tipped for a big move is Norwich’s Todd Cantwell. Norwich are pretty much-guaranteed relegation (sorry Norwich fans) and a number of clubs including Liverpool are reportedly interested in Norwich’s homegrown star. Cantwell has been impressive in his first season in the Premier League notching 6 goals and 2 assists, especially when you consider Norwich have only scored 25 goals all season.
His creative stats are impressive, he makes 1.3 key passes per 90 and 81% of his passes find their target. He also makes 1.9 successful dribbles per 90 and is all round an impressive prospect but he is statically overshadowed by the man playing on the other side of Norwich’s attack.
Emiliano Buendia
It could be argued the press and big clubs have got carried away with English talent with their obsessions with Grealish and Cantwell. It’s the latter’s teammate that should be turning the heads of the Premier League’s top 6.
The 23yr old Argentinian has 7 assists this season, only players playing for City or Liverpool have more, despite Norwich having the 2nd worst attack in the Premier League and he has been critical to Norwich’s attacking play this season.
His creative influence is truly impressive, alongside his assists he has the most key passes per 90 of anyone on this list, 3.3 per 90 minutes. Only Kevin De Bruyne has more.
He remarkably has more completed dribbles per 90 than Jack Grealish and if any criticism could be levelled at him it would be ball retention. He gives the ball away, via unsuccessful touches or dispossession, 6.2 per 90 minutes but overall, his statistics reveal how underrated Buendia is. He’s carried Norwich for large parts of this season and his metrics are equivalent to some of the Premier league’s best.
Considering he cost Norwich a remarkable £1.5 plus add ons , Norwich will make a huge profit on him whenever they sell him. Buendia has the statistics of top playmaker but is unlikely to have the price tag of one. The Top Six should be scrambling to get him into their sides.
David Brooks
Brooks hasn’t kicked a ball this season but if Bournemouth do go down, expect a number of clubs to be lining up for his signature. His absence has really hurt Bournemouth’s creativity and prolificacy upfront. Bournemouth scored 45 goals last season but have only managed 29 this time around. His broken ankle that he suffered in 2019 may put off some clubs but that could just make him better value for a possible buyer.
The Welshman scored 7 and assisted 5 last season, meaning he has the 2nd most goal involvements of anyone on this list. This is a like for like comparison as Brooks managed 2278 minutes, 56 less than Grealish and only 192 more than Cantwell have managed this term.
He made 1 successful dribble every 90 minutes and completed 1.2 key passes so in build-up play Buendia may be a better option but his output makes him an ideal addition to a top 6 club’s attacking contingent. If Manchester United miss out on Champions League football, Brooks or Buendia could be their cut priced alternatives to Sancho.
Ismaïla Sarr
The Watford winger who currently haunts the nightmares of Liverpool defenders is a possible purchase for those who want a direct and athletic right sided forward. The 22yr old has 5 goals and 3 assists this season in only 1200 minutes of football, meaning he’s involved in a goal every 153 minutes, the best of any on this list.
He makes 2.4 successful dribbles per 90 and 0.6 crosses per 90 but he is the least creative in this line up with only 1.2 key passes per 90 though this explained by him being a more traditional winger compared to the others. If teams are looking for a direct forward who gets goals frequently Sarr could be a well priced, reliable option.
Leandro Trossard
The Belgian midfielder has rarely, if ever, been the talk of the gossip features surrounding transfers. However, if Brighton do descend into the championship, he is one to look at for teams in the top half.
His teammate Pascal Groß has more impressive creative stats but I have ruled him out due to his age. Trossard at 25 is the oldest on this list but has plenty of football left him in. Despite not gardening plaudits in the media has made some impressive performances this season.
He has 3 goals and 3 assists this season but has only played 1446 minutes meaning he is involved in a goal more frequently than Cantwell and Buendia. He has equally impressive creative stats with 2.2 key passes per 90 and 1.2 key dribbles per 90.
Trossard has comparable statistics to other players on this list but is likely to go for a much-reduced fee and if Brighton were to go down a number of top half sides should make bids to attain the midfielder. Though I expect Brighton to be safe this season.
Of all the players on the list, Buendia is the one I think represent the biggest bargain but all of these attacking players could sit on the bench or better for top table sides and offer a threat.
Buendia or Brooks could offer Manchester United a cheaper option to Jadon Sancho whilst Cantwell or Grealish could add fire to an Arsenal attack.
If boards are overcome with worry about finances due to COVID purchasing from those making the drop could be an effective strategy.
*All stats correct as of 17/06/2020 Before Restart*
