Why Leicester’s Champions League place is at risk

2 points from 2 games against sub-par opposition; it's hardly been a flying start for the Foxes. They now find themselves only 6 points clear of Manchester United and Wolves in 5th and 6th.

In 2019, Leicester looked like they could be, once again, in a title race but now they find themselves in 3rd, anxiously looking over their shoulder. They sit a solitary point above Chelsea and Brendan Rodgers should extremely worried about finishing 5th following his team's poor restart.

Leicester now have an incredibly tough run-in. They only play 2 teams outside the top half and their final games are against Spurs and Manchester United.

Their fixture list gets progressively harder as games go on. Therefore, if things don’t change quickly they will have squandered their best chances to get points. Their next 3 games are ample chance to get 9 points against mid-table opposition but Everton, Crystal Palace and Arsenal are far from easy games.

Manchester United, now unbeaten in 13, have the opposite situation with a run of games from now till the final day where they would be expecting to take maximum points. Wolves are in a similar situation and while Chelsea do have to play Wolves, Liverpool and Sheffield they also have the likes of Norwich and West Ham.

Their rivals also look in form, whilst Leicester look lacklustre. They have Neil Maupay to thank for them getting 2pts post restart but they have wasted 2 of their easiest games.

Their poor form could be blamed on the restart but Leicester have been fading throughout 2020.

This was to be expected because Leicester have been outperforming their statistics for most of the season. Based on the xG metric and xPTS, we can judge Leicester have been either clinical or lucky or a mix of both.

According to Understat’s xG table, Leicester should sit 6th, 3 pts behind Wolves and 8 behind Manchester United in 4th.

This isn’t just a pointless statistic brought up by a bitter Manchester United fan either. Teams rarely outperform their xG over extended periods so expect Leicester to begin to recede back to their mean. A drop off in points that could see them caught and overtaken by their rivals for Europe.

The main reason they have outperformed their xG is Jamie Vardy. The England forward has been hyper clinical this season and if Leicester are to keep winning they must keep him involved. If his form drops, their position in the table will follow.

Leicester play Manchester United on the last game of the season and I think that game could decide whether they play in the Champions League next season.

*Statistics correct as of 26/06/2020*